No dire shortage of veterinarians anticipated in coming years
Updated October 9, 2024
A recent analysis of the drivers of supply and demand for veterinary services in the U.S. shows that the number of graduates from existing U.S. veterinary colleges is likely enough to meet demand to 2035.
The conclusion comes from a recent analysis performed by Brakke Consulting Inc., which was commissioned by the AVMA. John Volk, a senior analyst with Brakke Consulting, will provide an overview of the report, “Forecasting Supply and Demand Indicators for US Veterinarians 2024-2035,” at the 2024 AVMA Veterinary Business and Economic Forum, October 8-9. The analysis looked at trends in the number of veterinary graduates and pet-owning households as well as consumers’ disposable income and pet spending.
“In short, the projections in this analysis do not justify a conclusion of overall excess capacity or capacity shortage by 2030 or 2035,” according to Volk.
Meanwhile, the population of veterinarians is likely to grow faster than pet owning households if all 13 proposed veterinary schools become accredited. With 33 U.S. veterinary colleges currently recognized by the AVMA Council on Education (AVMA COE), this would represent a nearly 40% increase in a 10-year period.
That means in order to avoid potential negative economic impact pet owners would have to be willing to spend more and more on pets, said Volk, in an exclusive interview with AVMA News ahead of the report’s publication.
Economy’s impact
Because pet care spending is tied to consumers’ disposable income, economic fluctuations impact the veterinary industry accordingly.
This was true when, during and following the Great Recession from 2007-09, household budgets tightened. As a result, there was a perceived surplus of veterinarians and a soft labor market reflected by the decline of job offers for new veterinary graduates.
Then came the COVID-19 pandemic in the early 2020s, when the government introduced $5 trillion of stimulus money into the economy and created significantly more disposable income. At the same time, people weren’t going out as much, spending money on things such as vacations and restaurants, but were at home with their pets. Veterinary visits spiked, creating a very tight veterinary labor market or “shortage,” according to the report.
“All of that provided tremendous tailwinds to the profession… but now we’re just returning to the norm,” Volk said. “The economy is still quite strong, and people are still spending, just not at the level before when they had so much money. We’re seeing that now as visits decline from a peak achieved in 2021 and 2022.”
Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) Consumer Price Index show prices for veterinary services have been increasing well into this year. Meanwhile, there’s been a slowdown in the volume of veterinary services, according to the Veterinary Industry Tracker
“To me, what that would signal is prices went up for a long time. Now visits are down 2%. Prices went up faster than they did for the overall economy, so now there is a slowdown in visits, which we would expect given higher prices,” said Matthew MacLachlan, an assistant professor of veterinary business and entrepreneurship at Cornell University and co-author of the report.
Current and future demand
According to AVMA surveys, the percentage of veterinarians in companion animal practice grew from 61% in 2001 to 73% in 2023. The report’s authors expect that percentage to grow modestly between now and 2035.
At the same time, using data from MRI-Simmons and Packaged Facts, a syndicated study of U.S. consumers, the number of households owning dogs and cats grew from 38 million in 1998 to 66 million in 2023. While growth in recent years has been very low, the model the report authors used forecasts an approximately 2% annual growth rate in pet ownership through 2035.
The report’s authors say this does not suggest that growth in the number of pet-owning households alone will spur dramatic growth in demand for veterinary services.
“Instead, if demand is to accelerate substantially, it would need to come from changes in consumer preferences, especially to increased frequency of visits to the veterinarian or an increased consumption of veterinary services during a visit,” according to the report.
The report uses the BLS reports on spending on veterinary services, which comes from its Consumer Expenditures Survey, to forecast median household spending on veterinary services. The results indicate “slow growth in the per-household spending on veterinary services around the median, indicating an expectation that the typical household who visits the veterinarian would only increase their spending a small amount over time.”
Current and future supply
Amid these fluctuations in the economy, a number of universities have announced their intentions to open new veterinary colleges.
Three new schools are currently admitting students: Texas Tech University in Lubbock, Texas; Long Island University in Brookville, New York; and Ana G. Méndez University in Gurabo, Puerto Rico. Also, Lincoln Memorial University (LMU) Richard A. Gillespie College of Veterinary Medicine in Harrogate, Tennessee, added a second cohort of 100 students in January 2023 and will continue to matriculate 100 students each January in addition to enrolling 125 veterinary students each August.
And then there are 13 veterinary colleges in various stages of pursuing AVMA COE accreditation:
- Arkansas State University in Jonesboro, Arkansas
- Chamberlain University in in Stockbridge, Georgia
- Clemson University in Clemson, South Carolina
- Hanover College in Hanover, Indiana
- Lincoln Memorial University-Orange Park (Florida)
- Lyon College in Batesville, Arkansas
- Midwestern University in Downers Grove, Illinois
- Murray State University in Murray, Kentucky
- Rowan University in Mullica Hill, New Jersey
- Utah State University in Logan Utah
- University of Maryland Eastern Shore in Princess Ann, Maryland
- Rocky Vista College in Billings, Montana
- St. Matthews University in the Cayman Islands
Based on available information, the report’s authors anticipate that two new veterinary colleges will graduate their first class in 2028, six in 2029, and five in 2030. Even by 2035, only about 4% of veterinarians would be graduates of new veterinary colleges, Volk said. The real impact on the population of veterinarians will likely occur after 2035.
Forecasted and projected numbers of new graduates are based on an estimate that all schools will start with class sizes of 100 and grow at an annual rate of 2%. This projection includes the assumption that the portion of new veterinary graduates entering companion-animal medicine will climb to 80%. Class sizes in U.S. veterinary colleges have grown by an average of 3.1% yearly since 2001.
Based on this information, it appears that the number of companion animal veterinarians likely will increase faster than the number of pets and pet-owning households over the forecast period.
“What we don’t know, looking into future, is what those relationships are going to be like. Certainly, given the circumstances we’ve seen in last 20 years, if we add 50% more vet schools over a 10-year period, going from 30 to 46, then demand either has to grow at a similar pace or it will have a depressing effect on prices and wages,” Volk said.
He added that if the cost of veterinary services increases at a slower rate than other goods and services, that will stimulate demand as well.
Mars report
The narrative that the U.S. has a shortage of small animal veterinarians had taken hold recently. Often cited is an August 2023 report commissioned by Mars Veterinary Health, which has a network of 3,000 veterinary clinics worldwide, titled, “Pet Healthcare in the U.S.: Another Look at the Veterinarian Workforce.” It says the nation will need as many as 55,000 additional veterinarians by 2030 to meet the increasing need for companion animals’ health care.
Written by Dr. Jim Lloyd, the report cites research from the University of Florida that uses a “nowcasting” or “systems modeling” approach, in which real-time or near-real-time data are used to characterize both the current state of this labor market and trends in supply and demand.
Yet, Volk said his concern with the paper is that Dr. Lloyd doesn’t factor in supply and demand in his calculations. Dr. Lloyd argued that “labor shortages are virtually never calculated using supply and demand curves except in theoretical settings because the data are never sufficient to do so,” according to the Mars paper.
Volk disagrees. “You can’t suspend laws of supply and demand and say they don’t apply,” he said, adding that the Mars paper did not provide for any kind of uncertainty about the future, but rather, uses simple linear projections that were not based on any commonly used model or forecasting algorithm.
“Our objective was to not to confirm or challenge the Lloyd paper. We tried to get the longest-term data available and do a reasonable analysis and forecasting using accepted algorithms,” Volk said. “We tried to let the data speak for themselves.”
MacLachlan added that the Brakke paper acknowledges uncertainty around the forecast—largely because of limited data and considering outcomes well into the future. In terms of other distinctions, he said they carefully thought about whether there was potential market failure in the system, but ultimately couldn’t find one.
“We did a nice and careful job of thinking if we had a labor market facing disequilibrium, and without clear evidence, I don’t think you can impose it,” MacLachlan said.
He previously spent eight years at the U.S. Department of Agriculture as an analyst for agricultural commodities and food prices.
“I’ve studied several markets in my career, and I don’t expect there to be a mismatch in supply and demand. It would be especially unusual to hold for a decade out. I think that would be a very particular situation economists would be drawn to,” MacLachlan said.
He added, “The pace at which it goes to equilibrium does matter. I don’t want to say there aren’t regional or practice type-specific frictions or problems where supply doesn’t equal demand, but over the long term, I don’t expect that to persist forever,” he said.
A version of this story appears in the December 2024 print issue of JAVMA
For more information about John Volk’s talk at the 2024 AVMA Veterinary Business and Economic Forum, view this 3-2-1 Insight-to-Action Guide created for the session, “Insights from the Latest Research: Workforce Modeling.”
The AVMA also has information available discussing the risks of a midlevel position and virtual veterinarian-client-patient relationship.